Reference: Published by Luke Fraser (BusinessTech), 19 January 2024
https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/743573/south-africas-real-matric-pass-rate-is-only-55/
Although the Department of Basic Education (DBE) has welcomed the official 2023 matric pass rate of 82.9%, opponents have calculated a more accurate figure by accounting for those pupils who did not even get it to matric.
On Thursday, January 18, 2024, the DBE revealed that the matric class of 2023 continued to outperform the previous year’s pass rate, with an overall pass percentage of 82.9%.
While the official pass rate is cause for celebration, it fails to account for the large number of students who drop out of public school along the way.
According to Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga, 897,775 matrics have enrolled for exams, including 715,719 full-time and 182,056 part-time applicants.
This figure is much lower than the 1.2 million learners who began with the same cohort in 2012, signifying over 490,000 students who never made it to matric.
This suggests that the learners who graduated matric in 2023 account for only about 55% of those who began school in 2012.
| Grade | No. of students |
| Grade 1 cohort (2012) | 1 208 973 |
| Grade 2 cohort (2013) | 1 116 427 |
| Grade 3 cohort (2014) | 1 073 447 |
| Grade 4 cohort (2015) | 1 088 804 |
| Grade 5 cohort (2016) | 1 025 674 |
| Grade 6 cohort (2017) | 978 130 |
| Grade 7 cohort (2018) | 960 151 |
| Grade 8 cohort (2019) | 1 057 640 |
| Grade 9 cohort (2020) | 982 574 |
| Grade 10 cohort (2021) | 1 081 618 |
| Grade 11 cohort (2022) | 928 050 |
| Grade 12 cohort (2023) | 717 377 |
The opposition DA has also questioned the DBE’s pass rate, claiming that the real matric pass percentage increased from 54.6% in 2022 to 55.3% in 2023.
The true matric pass rate is obtained by accounting for the number of students who dropped out and never made it to matric.
Although some students pursue matric via technical and vocational education and training (TVET) after grade 9, a considerable number drop out entirely.
To account for TVET students, the DA used the actual matric pass rate from the grade 10 group that should have taken the matric. 345,626 students dropped out between grades 10 and 12 in 2021 and 2023.
When it comes to grade 10, our sister publication, MyBroadband, reports an even lower genuine pass rate of 53.0%.
When Grade 2 is used instead of Grade 1 due to the disproportionately large number of students held back after their first year of study, the real pass rate drops to 51.3%.
“The real matric pass rate is an excellent indicator of not only Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga and her Department’s lack of success but also of the country’s,” Baxolile Nodada, the deputy minister of education, stated.
“This ANC government appears to prioritize quantity above quality, believing that it represents a progress over previous years.
“This skewed focus on how many learners can be pushed through the system should be scrapped in favour of a focus on the quality of skills gained, so learners have a shot of being employable and bettering their circumstances.”